]Politics[

"Spanfeller is a twat" (theaspiringengineer) 01/23/2019 at 17:57 • Filed to: AN EXCLUSIVE CLUB OF IDIOTS.

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Wait a minute ....

Recognition of Maduro as president of Venezuela:

- Bolivia - Cuba - Mexico - Russia - Turkey

In favour of new elections and/or non-violent solutions (but still recognize Maduro as the head of government)

-Mexico- Uruguay

Recognising Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s president:

- US - Canada - Brazil - Paraguay - Colombia - Argentina - Peru - Ecuador - Costa Rica - Chile - Guatemala-European Union-Uruguay- Spain

But wait.... what the fuck, Bolton?

Ok, that’s bad....

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

Oh this is worse...

So.... to recap.... Venezuela has been struggling since 2013... five years pass, a refugee crisis emerges and only after you declare yourself President, even with the military on your side , you say US military support could be a part of removing Maduro.

Nope.
Nope.
Nope.
Nope.

Nothing good has ever come out of US military interventions in oil rich countries.

Nope.
Nope.
Nope.
Nope.

The optics around the world don’t help. South Americans !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! the US due to pretty much everything that happened during the Nixon, Reagan, and Bush I administrations, and Bolton is known to be a very stupid person.

So the idea of Bolton and the US considering deploying 5000 troops to the country bordering Venezuela, well... it creeps the fuck out of everyone outside the US.

At least here in Mexico, where public opinion is somewhat divided, US military intervention sounds fucking insane. It was in no one’s mind, not even among immigrants from Venezuela or Guiado supporters.

Specially since before his proclamation, Guiado visited Colombia and the US, two countries ruled by very conservative politicians. Despite being member of one of the socialist parties in Venezuela, this caught many off guard , specially those that consider themselves economically liberal. T his might seem like a power grab by Guiado.

For Sweden > Spanfeller is a twat 01/23/2019 at 18:04

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Think of how much money a Russian navy base would bring to Campeche.

ttyymmnn > Spanfeller is a twat 01/23/2019 at 18:06

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The US surprises me, TBH. Trump hasn’t actually been much of a champion of democracy lately.

Spanfeller is a twat > For Sweden 01/23/2019 at 18:06

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Yes, Russian navy bases and p eninsular areas go hand in hand.

boredalways > For Sweden 01/23/2019 at 18:07

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And all the cheap oil Trump can claim?

For Sweden > Spanfeller is a twat 01/23/2019 at 18:07

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There is a pretty significant Spanish-speaking population in Texas that might not oppose annexation...

Spanfeller is a twat > ttyymmnn 01/23/2019 at 18:08

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Trump doesn't do something stupid is actually a nice headline.

Spanfeller is a twat > For Sweden 01/23/2019 at 18:09

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Oh don't even start... If these are the teams for WW3 I'm moving the fuck out of here.

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 01/23/2019 at 18:10

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Opposing a clear Putin & Kim ally is the odd part. That will make an interesting conversation in upcoming summits.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > Spanfeller is a twat 01/23/2019 at 19:07

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And look how well that ends for the people that have them

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spanfeller is a twat 01/24/2019 at 09:16

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So, how’s this going to play out? 

NKato > Spanfeller is a twat 02/09/2019 at 18:31

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In light of our politics for the past half-century, I have to ask South America this: Why do you insist on doing stupid shit if you know it might provoke military intervention irrespective of how dumb said intervention might be ?

Come on. The U.S. has like fourteen aircraft carriers, and plenty of firepower to level a small country overnight. Even Russia or China can’t possibly match up to that (though the latter seems to be trying hard to catch up).

LongbowMkII > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 02/09/2019 at 18:31

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We’re going to be greeted as liberators. 

Maxima Speed > Spanfeller is a twat 02/09/2019 at 18:38

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I’m definitely against troops being used in Venezuela. Let’s hope it’s just verbal strong arming  to intimidate with no intention to back it up.

Spanfeller is a twat > NKato 02/09/2019 at 18:40

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I don’t think those are comparable. The US has no right to attack any other country just because it has twenty aircraft carriers. What ya’ll consider stupid shit might not be stupid over there, it’s part of their autonomy.

On the other hand, i t’s very saddening that Venezuela has gone to shit, and it’s a shame the leader of the movement to stop Maduro is not discarting the possibility of the US sending military aid.

Spanfeller is a twat > Maxima Speed 02/09/2019 at 18:43

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It’s a strong message, no doubt. But I’m not exactly certain it’s the message they want to hear.

Even if Venezuela has not been infiltrated by the US, you could very well assume that they saw how the M iddle E astern interventions, and those in the neighboring countries, unfolded. The US might be a good ally for Guiado, but threatening to use the military is just a step too far.

NKato > Spanfeller is a twat 02/09/2019 at 18:55

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I’m not disagreeing with you. I’m saying because our politicians are fucking dumbasses, provoking an intervention is a lot more likely than you’d like it to be.

The question of whether it’s right or not to attack any other country for X or Y reason is not necessarily at issue here; it’s the fact that based on past precedent, the U.S. can and potentially will intervene in South America if shitbirds crap on everything.

Spanfeller is a twat > NKato 02/09/2019 at 19:18

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But you’re basically saying the same thing: it’s victim blaming . Countries have the right to do as they wish , if the US threatens to invade them, it’s always the US’s fault for invading.

Given the history of modern US invations, it's clear that the only reason why the US isn't super duper sanctioned is because of the security council.

NKato > Spanfeller is a twat 02/09/2019 at 20:05

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Yes, that is the way it should be, that America be blamed and bear responsibility for those interventions/invasions.

However, that’s not quite how global politics work. If you’re a country that’s stupid enough to draw the attention of the world superpower, then maybe you’re doing something incorrectly . (Incorrectly, not necessarily wrong)

Vítor > Spanfeller is a twat 02/09/2019 at 22:34

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I fear that a new election really is the only viable solution, and unfortunately the least possible to happen. Maduro after everything still has strong support not only with the military but with some of the Venezuelan society as well.

Forcibly removing Maduro and imposing Guaido (as good as is intentions may be) is something I think that would turn out like the Arab Spring: successfull removal of a tyrant dictator, failure of the society in supporting the new, weak regime (Guaid o would go against Venezuela’s strong military, aided by China and Russia nonetheless) with would be followed by caos and then either descend into civil war and anarchy (like Libya) or a ruthless military dictatorship (like Egypt)

Mexico is the only one being sensible with the situation, well most of the western world was until the United States fuelled by Bolton’s war-boner demanded everyone to take a side

Spanfeller is a twat > Vítor 02/09/2019 at 22:47

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To be honest our government fucked up. Originally given their first comments, everyone thought Mexico was with Maduro. Instead what Ebrard has been doing is his version of the “Estrada” doctrine, which is basically non-intervension.

but he’s doing it wrong, because he has suggested Mexico could mediate, and our electoral institute even offered technical aid to Venezuela for a possible election. But I find that our current position is more sensible than many countries.

I hate Maduro, but I feel that Guaido is proving to be scary as well, and it could end up being worse than Maduro if a big proxy war emerges. We’re lucky Venezuela doesn't have ocean access to the pacific or else China would play an important role.

Vítor > Spanfeller is a twat 02/09/2019 at 23:19

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I see that, Mexico isn’t alone as a lot of states changed their position on the Venezuelan question (pretty much only the United States and, ugh, Brazil supported Guaido from the get go). The EU and as you mentioned Uruguay was originally pro-elections as well , but that changed after that emergency UN session.

I share your apprehension about Guaido as well, that his major ini tial s upport came from two far right governments and that the EU and other more sensible western nations were intially preferable to new elections than him doesn’t give him a good impression to me.

Vítor > Spanfeller is a twat 02/09/2019 at 23:32

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 We’re lucky Venezuela doesn’t have ocean access to the pacific or else China would play an important role.

Now that you mentioned that, let’s hope that neighbor Colombia which has access to both oceans k eep itself in the stride of ever i ncreasing political and social stability that they have been going through recently. Proxy wars very rarely restrict themselves to borders, and Mr. Márquez government needs to be  as sound and solid as possible

Spanfeller is a twat > Vítor 02/09/2019 at 23:43

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At least here, people support Obrador, and if they support Obrador, they support everything he does... Including Maduro. It ultimately lead to some very credible left wing newspapers like La Jornada publishing this garbage , and it also lead one of the candidates to Banxico into publishing poverty statistics in Latin America where Venezuela had the lowest rate and Chile the highest one.... Which is just dead wrong.

It fell down party lines. I guess it probably happened the same way in Brazil, but opposite since Bolsanaro exists...

As for Guiado , the far right thing is really bothering me. Specially since Guaido should know who John Bolton is and how everything Bolton touches basically turns to shit.

I don’t know what Guaido wants to do, but so much support from the US probably comes at the cost of privatizing oil or forestries. He has been a government official for less than a year... not really inspiring confidence as far as that’s concerned.

But Maduro is worse and Guaido is promising fair elections. Honestly, I don’t know how this could be done without being controversial. In the end, Maduro’s party only has 18% of seats in the National Assembly, yet he somehow won the general elections...

But he won the last elections. So if Maduro looses in the new elections, he could claim fraud and that the Americans did it, energizing a lot of the population.

If Maduro won, Guaido wouldn't step down, and the US would probably double down on criticising Venezuela.

Vítor > Spanfeller is a twat 02/10/2019 at 00:12

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 It fell down party lines. I guess it probably happened the same way in Brazil, but opposite since Bolsanaro exists...

Yeah... bit different here since the media is straight up discredited by the government, even though the respectable names (Folha de São Paulo, GloboNews, El País, etc.) are doing a good job at being impartial in their coverage of the crisis (know how Trumps yells fake news at CNN? Multiple that by 11). Here if you criticise or complain about Bolsonaro’s government, his supporters instead of arguing will just scream at you that you should leave Brazil for Venezuela or Cuba (if you dislike Bolsonaro = communist, no grey area ). Curious fact: both countries are still statistically more developed than Brazil, Cuba by a significant margin

Maduro just needs to go, he is a tyrant and Venezuela won’t have a future as long as he is the head of state. I think you are right that there isn’t a perfect solution and its impossible to have one in such a polarized n ation, and with so much foreign interference from both sides it just gets more and more fragile. Guaido will hopefully work and do good for the Venezuelan society, stabilising the nation and holding fair elections as soon as possible, but such support from the United States (and to a lesser extent, Bolsonaro’s Brazil) will have a price, that’s guaranteed. I could see Venezuela leaving OPEC for starters.

I still feel like a new, fair election, with the current political prisoners allowed to run, would be the best bet (but I think that should be mediated by the UN, weakening the “US intervened! ” tactic) , but the volatile risk of the Military current support of Maduro would remain.

Spanfeller is a twat > Vítor 02/10/2019 at 00:24

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“Yeah... bit different here since the media is straight up discredited by the government”

Nope, same here. Actually this week the first lady said “Mamado Nervo” instead of Amando Nervo at a culture conference, and the secretariat of culture published a press release saying it was the day of the battle of puebla... which it wasn’t.

When the media pointed it out, Cultura said it was a fake release and the first lady said that the video of her was “Possibly altered”

Here if you criticise or complain about Bolsonaro’s government, his supporters instead of arguing will just scream at you that you should leave Brazil for Venezuela or Cuba

Nope, same here, Obrador’s followers call you a Neoliberal conservative and tell you to fuck off. Even though Obrador’s government is proving to be quite conservative in some aspects. I mean, he did just spend 92 million dollars buying US made fuel pipes.... even though Mexican companies make pipes too.

Also, the pipes they bought didn’t comply to Mexican transport standards, so they fucking lowered the standards in order to use the trucks... it's madness.

I think that should be mediated by the UN

I’m not sure it’s in the best interests of many member states that the UN mediate some elections, it could create a very powerful and dangerous precedent for many members. But it would be the best solution.

Alterntivebly, Mexico’s INE always invites foreign adjudicators to witness the election, which is a good idea as far as legitimicy goes.

Vítor > Spanfeller is a twat 02/10/2019 at 01:14

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It’s going to be some long motherfucking 4 years for us Latinos , won’t it be? I’m burned out by this country already and there has been barely a month. Populism sucks, independent of the political spectrum. I straight up don’t trust anyone that frequently attacks the serious media , journalism only enemy is the lie

Here down south ever since the devil took power a mineral dam erupted 60km away from my city and killed over 300 something people, while our new minister of environment was condemned of favouring mine companies in the past, and our president was very content that his nomination made environment organisations unhappy. We should be happy that there is still a secretary of environment, the plan was to merge it with the secretary of agriculture (you read that right)

The ne w minister of human rights doesn’t have a graduation (she previously presented herself as a doctor in education, when asked about it she said her diploma was “biblical”), is a ultra- evangelical corservative nutjob, says that boys should wear blue and girls should wear pink, that schools are sexualising and causing homosexuality in children (yes, she said that), apparently kidnapped her adoptive native daughter from a i ndian village without any consent, and so, so, so much more that ires me much just to think. And of course anything mentioning LGBTs were removed from the Secretary of Human Rights. Think Handmaid’s Tale, but worse

The fucker named to be minister of I nternational Relations, previously Brazil’s most widely respected s ecretary, is a flat Ea rth believer that makes Alex Jones look like a Nobel Prize winner

The new law proposed by the new, corrupted mi nister of justice basically gives the police a free pass to murder every poor black and mulato teen it sees. Our police already did that, but now its basically legal

Th ere is so, so, so much more I could write but just what I mentioned already brought back the daily disappointment and ire this administration causes. Pretty sure I will wake up to another news that in other country would mean immediate impeachment

Back to Venezuela. Well , I think that if a UN mediate is unlikely (I mentioned the UN because in theory that’s supposed to be as impartial as it can get) Mexico being the last major defender of elections with the support of another neutral nation would be as good as it can get. Mexico currently being a leftist nation would mine Maduro’s case of intervention

Spanfeller is a twat > Vítor 02/10/2019 at 01:54

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I don’t know what will happen in the next years in Latin America but it will certainly be strange.

I feel that Brazil is ahead of the curve in the sense that... The technocrats won’t return until people are forced to deal with their freakish obsession with religion, masculinity, and the ‘savior president’.

I ronically, I think that Bolsanaro is gonna be your country’s come to jesus moment. People will see that legal guns make crime worse, they will see that discrimination is bad, and they will see so many things that technocrats kept away from them for good ....

We had a good run of technocrats here, that started getting us up to global standard, but they also made so many mistakes. I swear that Peña Nieto had some pretty good policies but the stuff happening behind doors was absolute corruption, beyond what is even realistic.

So, since Peña’s cabinet was filled with people that studied in Harvard, Oxford, and ITAM (Mexican uni), the new President will not hire anyone from those institutions, which is a viseral response but I guess it made sense to him.

In the minds of people, the technocrats had their chance, and they blew it because they abused their power. But technocrats didn’t post flyers about the battle of Puebla in the wrong date, neither did they buy bad tankers, or kept us without fuel, or kept trains stopped, or bought coal for electrcity.

The technocrats were evil, but they were evil geniuses. Peña Nieto left office as the least popular president in history, yet there was no revolution. He left gracefully.... How the hell did he do that?

Now we have the ‘good’ intentions of the populists, but non of the genius of the technocrats. Which is why I now live in a country where they’re gonna pay lorry drivers twice as much as Mechanical Engineers.